Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a battleground for competing visions of technological development, economic models, and political philosophies. On one side, DeepSeek represents a collaborative, open-source approach that prioritizes accessibility and community-driven innovation. On the other, OpenAI embodies a controlled, centralized model that balances openness with commercial and ethical considerations. This article explores the differences between these two AI giants, examining their products, energy consumption, openness, economic models, and implications for the future of AI.

Vivandière of the French Army: A 19th-Century Representation of Women Supporting Troops in Military Campaigns


Asking the Right Questions

Today, I came across the GEGI report "A Critical Time for Women to Lead" by Amanda Ellis and Augusto Lopez-Claros. While the report highlights the alarming erosion of gender equality and the need for women in leadership, it also prompts deeper reflection: What does it mean to lead as a woman? Historically, leadership has often been framed by masculine traits such as aggression, decisiveness, and dominance, while women’s roles have been stereotypically associated with caregiving and peace. These assumptions ignore the vast diversity in leadership styles and outcomes among women. For example, studies cited in the GEGI report reveal that women’s participation in peace processes leads to more durable agreements, challenging the narrative that leadership is a zero-sum game of power and aggression. Most importantly, are we asking the right questions about the systemic barriers and cultural narratives that shape perceptions of leadership?

Gender and War

Since Trump’s election, I hear this topic discussed more frequently. Why now? What has changed? The US is a strange country for me, and I lack sufficient knowledge to form a definitive opinion. As a European, they often seem like aggressors who demand loyalty and submission from Europeans. Calling us a "partner" always feels like a threat, especially after enduring hidden embargoes, aggressive TARIC policies, and more subtle import laws. Not to mention the debacles of the wars since 9/11, allegedly fought in defense of Western values, democracy, and anti-terrorism.

That said, I prefer more dynamic political systems with greater citizen participation and politics based on pragmatic goals rather than abstract values and beliefs. Thus, I had no preference for either US candidate and only wished for a period of fewer wars, particularly wars waged in the name of Europe or European values.

The rising debate on more gendered politics stems from two sides: Trump’s visibly male-dominated government formation and the opposing party’s campaign emphasis on being "woman-friendly." However, empirical evidence does not support the claim that one side is inherently more “woman-friendly” or less prone to war. Historical studies reveal that both men and women in positions of power have been equally capable of cruelty and aggression. Additionally, there is no conclusive evidence that societies with higher percentages of women in leadership experience fewer conflicts. This challenges the simplistic narrative that gender alone determines tendencies toward peace or violence. Machismo and war economics have been ingrained in the US since its inception.

The Geopolitical Shifts

When reading the GEGI report, one set of statistics stands out. There are regions and countries that perform better or worse based on the study's statistical framework. However, these results depend heavily on how power is defined and measured. I am not always convinced that the numbers presented provide clear indicators of the actual power or influence women hold in these societies.

Another important consideration is that, according to these statistics, large areas of the world are categorized as having fewer women in positions of power. These regions are often the same ones historically associated with lower economic and political influence, such as countries classified as part of the "Third World," nations embroiled in wars or conflicts, or those destabilized by paramilitary activity. Paradoxically, these conflicts are often fueled or supported by the very countries that are deemed more "women-friendly," such as the US and European states.

Historically, these "less women-friendly" countries have held little geopolitical or economic weight compared to dominant Western nations. However, current geopolitical shifts are changing that dynamic. These regions are gaining influence, potentially challenging the traditional global power structures. This raises a provocative question: Is the emphasis on gender equality statistics—particularly in these regions—an indirect tool to pressure or even blackmail these rising powers? Could their relative lack of gender equality be a consequence of their historically unfavorable geopolitical standing, rather than a reflection of inherent societal values?

At the same time, these shifts also provoke reflection on leadership styles within traditionally dominant nations. Are our leaders appealing to their female citizens to consolidate and impose their "male power," or are they mirroring the style and tone of their foreign counterparts in an effort to maintain their relevance on the global stage?


A Threat to Women?

Are figures like Trump, Musk, and others a threat to women? My immediate reaction is that they are a threat to mental sanity in general. Upon further reflection, if they indeed foster sexist behavior, then this represents a broader threat to all of us.

Before delving into an analysis, I believe it’s essential to clarify what we’re discussing and understand the underlying dynamics.

The GEGI report operates within a logical framework suggesting that women are inherently more peaceful and contribute more to peace. This framework also seems to be based on an ideology that recent times—or the near future—are characterized by increasing violent conflicts. Furthermore, it portrays women as having progressively fought for and secured their rights, often against men who are depicted as deriving power by suppressing women.

I see no evidence, either in history or in my own experience, to support these claims.

While the percentage of women in parliaments might appear to be an attractive metric for gender studies, do we truly understand how to measure real power? Especially when the economic influence of industrial billionaires has risen to such heights that they arguably wield more power over legislation than elected representatives. This raises a critical question: How can we effectively measure social power?

Lessons from History

History demonstrates that both women and men have adapted their behavior to fit the roles they were permitted or expected to occupy, shaped by systemic constraints and social structures. This does not reflect inherent differences in behavior but rather the influence of societal expectations and power dynamics on both genders. It is not evidence of intrinsic peacefulness or gentleness in women but a reflection of the limitations imposed by these systems. There is no concrete proof that women are less aggressive or cruel than men. On the contrary, women have led wars, commanded armies, and exercised power with the same determination and ruthlessness as men when given the opportunity.

For example, during the medieval and early modern periods, figures such as Zheng Yi Sao or Isabella of Castile profoundly influenced military and political landscapes. However, as militaries became larger and more bureaucratic in later centuries, women's participation diminished—not because they were inherently unfit for these roles, but because evolving social and political norms excluded them.

John A. Lynn II’s Women, Armies, and Warfare in Early Modern Europe provides valuable insights, aligning with my own research from 2009–2015, which revealed how the professionalization of armies systematically sidelined women. Bureaucratic efficiency, extending into today’s AI-driven surveillance, has concentrated control over war and peace within the state apparatus, with significant implications for gender roles.

Another key takeaway is the evolving role of women in light of the commodified soldier and the outlook this suggests for modern hybrid wars. Women were actively excluded from warfare to make it appear more "rational" and "civilized," a process that redefined both the practice of war and the social roles of women.

Contradictions in Modern Warfare

It is worth questioning whether we truly face more wars today than in the past. The scale and nature of warfare have changed, but conflict has always been part of human society. Interestingly, as militaries became larger and more industrialized, women's direct involvement decreased. Lynn’s work highlights how the professionalization of armies in the 17th and 18th centuries systematically excluded women, phasing out roles such as combatants, camp followers, and logistical organizers. These exclusions were part of an effort to make warfare seem more "rational" and "civilized."

In contrast, the modern reintroduction of women into military roles, such as the high percentage of female soldiers in the Israeli Defense Forces, challenges the stereotype of women as inherently peaceful. It demonstrates that, when given the opportunity, women assume roles traditionally associated with aggression and conflict, just as men do.

Israel offers a particularly revealing example, though I wish to avoid discussions of genocide and focus on strategic-economic aspects instead. Israeli soldiers openly celebrate their acts of domination, contrasting sharply with the behavior of U.S. soldiers during the Iraq War, who were still expected to hide actions deemed inappropriate. This overt glorification of domination, supported by countries like the U.S.—a champion of the "rule of law" that frequently disregards the rules it imposes on others—closes a troubling circle.

The era of large standing armies and nuclear deterrence is clearly waning. Instead, a reformed version of mercenary and slave markets is already shaping global economics. While these practices are not new, the loss of any remaining sense of shame is striking. Even Switzerland, traditionally neutral, is reevaluating its stance—returning to a business it knows best: logistics, communication, and human resources in an increasingly polycentric world.

Visibility and Empirical Facts

One of the most pressing issues is the visibility of women in leadership—not just as symbolic figures or idealized models of "peaceful" governance, but as empirical realities. For instance, the GEGI report presents compelling data showing that women’s participation in peace processes leads to more sustainable outcomes, with studies indicating that peace agreements involving women are 35% more likely to last 15 years or longer. Similarly, John A. Lynn II’s historical analyses reveal how women’s leadership during early modern warfare directly shaped both strategic outcomes and societal dynamics. These examples highlight the tangible and measurable impact of women’s leadership throughout history and in modern governance.

Women lead across all sectors of society, yet their contributions are frequently overlooked or undervalued. It’s essential to showcase women’s leadership in its full complexity, including aspects that challenge traditional notions of femininity. Leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, Blinne Ní Ghrálaigh, and Lina Khan exemplify the diversity of leadership styles and roles that women occupy. These figures remind us that leadership is not about conforming to stereotypes, but about navigating and challenging the systems in which we operate.

The Danger of Simplistic Narratives

The narrative that women are inherently more peaceful risks perpetuating gender stereotypes. As Joan Scott cautions, essentializing women in this way undermines their leadership by confining it to certain “acceptable” traits. Instead, the focus should be on the systems that shape behavior and outcomes, rather than attributing differences solely to gender.

Leadership Beyond Gender

To truly understand women’s roles in leadership, we need to ask better questions. How do systems of power shape behavior and outcomes? Too often, the roles publicly recognized as leadership are far less influential than those that quietly wield real power. I am more concerned about the absence of female tech billionaires or corporate presidents in fields like logistics and chemistry than about the gender composition of parliaments or whether a country has a female head of state.

When will we see the first condottiere on the scale of Larry Fink or Ray Dalio? It’s curious that society fixates on loud and domineering men while overlooking women with real power—figures like Ursula von der Leyen, Christine Lagarde, Claudia Sheinbaum, Condoleezza Rice, or Madeleine Albright. These women demonstrate that power can and does reside with women, but their visibility and recognition remain insufficient. Women currently serve as heads of government in just 13 of the 193 United Nations member states. Moreover, only 60 UN member states (31%) have ever had a woman as head of government. This disparity has nothing to do with cultural stereotypes about "masculine" dominance and "US-boy steroids."

We need to ask the tough questions.

As long as we expect women to fix the world’s problems, there will be no equality.

Let women mess up. You don’t need to encourage boldness—but, why not? Let the men clean up. This isn’t just a sociopolitical opinion; it’s my experience as a wife and mother of four: forget your husband's agenda, lose your composure, and you’ll see how quickly men step up to restore good behavior, civilizational norms, and culture—for the benefit of everyone.

Bibliography

Ellis, A., & Lopez-Claros, A. (2020). A critical time for women to lead: Gender equality and leadership in a changing world. Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security. Retrieved from https://giwps.georgetown.edu/

Lynn, J. A. II. (2008). Women, armies, and warfare in early modern Europe. Cambridge University Press.

Pew Research Center. (2024, October 3). Women leaders around the world. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/10/03/women-leaders-around-the-world/

United Nations Women. (n.d.). About us: Directorate. Retrieved from https://www.unwomen.org/en/about-us/directorate

U.S. Department of Justice. (2023, May 24). American woman who led ISIS battalion sentenced to 20 years. Retrieved from https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/american-woman-who-led-isis-battalion-sentenced-20-years

When news like Tesla’s 2024 losses circulates—its first-ever annual drop in electric vehicle deliveries—many interpret it as a failure. The 1.1% decline, reported by Reuters, contradicted Elon Musk’s forecast of “slight growth” and caused a 6% drop in Tesla’s share value on January 2. On the surface, this seems like poor leadership or bad luck. But that perception misunderstands how billionaires like Musk operate. Their wealth isn’t built on steady sales or predictable growth—it’s built on influence, leverage, and seizing opportunities as they arise.

 

Elon Musk net worth graph by Eatcha, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

 

 

Beyond the Surface: Understanding Billionaire Wealth Management

Billionaires like Musk don’t prioritise sales margins or operational growth in the same way traditional businesses do. Instead, they focus on maintaining and growing the value of their equity through a mix of strategies:

  1. Public Perception: Future potential matters more than current performance. The valuation of their enterprises depends on investor confidence in their vision.
  2. Geopolitical Leverage: Billionaires often operate within or alongside ideological systems to gain influence over global markets and decision-making structures.
  3. Scenario-Based Flexibility: Instead of adhering to linear business models, billionaires work across multiple scenarios, shifting focus as new opportunities arise.
  4. Market Dynamics: Volatility, such as bear markets or short-selling opportunities, creates room for wealth-building that steady growth cannot offer.
 

The Nonlinear Nature of Billionaire Equity Management

Unlike traditional business strategies taught in MBA programmes, billionaire wealth management operates on a dynamic model, adjusting to geopolitical shifts, market trends, and emerging technologies. The trajectory of Starlink exemplifies this:

Starlink’s Nonlinear Path

  1. Launch for Connectivity: Initially framed as a satellite internet solution for underserved regions, Starlink became an essential tool in Ukraine’s defence against Russia in 2022, gaining geopolitical relevance.

  2. Humanitarian Branding: Musk activated Starlink in Iran during the 2022 protests to support internet freedom, reinforcing his image as a defender of democratic values (Al Jazeera, 2022). Similarly, he offered Starlink in Turkey and Syria after natural disasters but faced mixed responses.

  3. Selective Engagement: Musk withheld Starlink near Crimea in 2023 to avoid escalating the Ukraine conflict, citing the potential for misuse. This decision highlighted his control over the technology’s application (BBC, 2023).

  4. Emerging Competition: By 2024, China’s satellite megaprojects posed significant competition, reshaping Starlink’s market dynamics (CNBC, 2024).

  5. Geopolitical Leverage: Starlink expanded into Ukraine’s military communications and announced direct-to-cell services in 2024, reaffirming its strategic relevance (Al Arabiya, 2024).

  6. Future Opportunities: Starlink’s trajectory suggests that Musk’s focus isn’t on steady service expansion but on adapting the project to evolving geopolitical and market opportunities. Whether as a communication tool, geopolitical asset, or commercial enterprise, Starlink’s purpose shifts to align with Musk’s broader objectives.

This nonlinear approach exemplifies how billionaires navigate their ventures, not through rigid plans but through adaptable, scenario-based strategies that exploit emerging opportunities.

 

Is Tesla Still Central to Musk’s Vision?

Tesla’s 2024 losses have raised questions about whether the company remains a core focus for Musk. While it’s tempting to believe that Musk ensures Tesla’s dominance in the global EV market, history suggests that he may already be thinking of other projects. Musk has walked away from or deprioritised ventures before when they no longer aligned with his broader goals.

For example:

  • PayPal: Musk was instrumental in its creation but exited after its sale to eBay, using the proceeds to fund other ventures like SpaceX and Tesla.
  • OpenAI: Musk co-founded OpenAI but later stepped back, citing concerns about its trajectory.
  • The Boring Company: Initially presented as a revolutionary tunnelling enterprise, it has since taken a backseat to Musk’s other projects.

If Tesla’s challenges no longer serve Musk’s long-term goals, he may choose to pivot. Whether that means handing over the reins, spinning off parts of the company, or letting Tesla’s prominence fade, Musk’s history suggests that he is not bound to any single venture.

 

The Role of Public Manipulation

In this model, public perception becomes the most powerful tool. Billionaires like Musk use bold predictions, strategic narratives, and ideological alignments to maintain control over their ventures. By framing setbacks as temporary and opportunities as limitless, Musk reinforces confidence in his empire.

For instance:

  • Musk’s alignment with ideological systems, such as his emphasis on “Christian values,” creates alliances that bolster his influence.
  • Starlink’s framing as a humanitarian tool masks its role as a geopolitical and commercial asset.
  • Tesla’s setbacks are downplayed as part of a long-term vision, keeping investor confidence intact.

 

Conclusion: Musk’s Wealth Management Playbook

Elon Musk doesn’t manage wealth or enterprises in the traditional sense. His approach relies on dynamic scenario planning, ideological alignment, and strategic manipulation of public perception to maintain influence and adaptability. Tesla’s 2024 losses, which some see as a failure, are better understood as part of a broader strategy that prioritises power and leverage over linear success.

However, the Musk empire’s ability to thrive doesn’t rest solely on Musk’s brilliance or genius. Instead, it hinges on his skill in aligning with a carefully selected group of like-minded individuals and maintaining power dynamics within that network. Success requires not only cultivating mutual interests but also ensuring that the internal balance of power remains under control while standing firm against external competitors.

The strategies Musk employs—exploiting market dynamics, fostering ideological partnerships, and crafting compelling narratives—are not unique to him. These methods have been honed over centuries and are actively shared and refined within elite circles. Musk’s mastery lies in his ability to operate within these frameworks, leveraging alliances and power structures to reinforce his influence.

Ultimately, the Musk empire’s future depends on more than individual genius; it relies on his ability to navigate and dominate the complex web of relationships, ideologies, and power structures that underpin the modern world. By skilfully aligning with allies and managing the shifting dynamics of influence, Musk continues to consolidate power and thrive in a game that rewards strategic cohesion over solitary brilliance.

 

References

Al Arabiya. (2024, December 30). Elon Musk’s Starlink to roll out direct-to-cell service in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/12/30/elon-musk-s-starlink-to-roll-out-direct-to-cell-service-in-Ukraine

Al Jazeera. (2022, September 24). Musk says activating Starlink in response to Blinken on internet. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/24/musk-says-activating-starlink-in-response-to-blinken-on-internet

Advanced Television. (2023, October 2). Starlink invited to cover Turkey. Retrieved from https://advanced-television.com/2023/10/02/starlink-invited-to-cover-turkey/

BBC. (2023, September 7). Elon Musk says he withheld Starlink over Crimea to avoid escalation. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66752264

BBC. (2023, October 20). Russia illegally using Musk’s Starlink satellites to advance in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/elon-musk-russia-ukraine-war-starlink-b2629084.html

CNBC. (2024, December 15). China’s satellite megaprojects are challenging Elon Musk’s Starlink. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/15/chinas-satellite-megaprojects-are-challenging-elon-musks-starlink.html

Commerce Senate. (2024, November). Biden-Harris administration fudges census data to ding Starlink internet access. Retrieved from https://www.commerce.senate.gov/2024/11/biden-harris-admin-fudges-census-data-to-ding-starlink-internet-access

Independent. (2023, September 25). Russia illegally using Musk’s Starlink satellites to advance in Ukraine. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/elon-musk-russia-ukraine-war-starlink-b2629084.html

Kron4. (2023, October 5). Elon Musk offers aid to Turkey via Starlink, Turkish government declines. Retrieved from https://www.kron4.com/news/world/elon-musk-offers-aid-to-turkey-via-starlink-turkish-government-declines/

Reuters. (2024, October 28). Musk’s bold 2025 prediction on Tesla sales faces skepticism, scrutiny. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musks-bold-2025-prediction-tesla-sales-faces-skepticism-scrutiny-2024-10-28/

Reuters. (2025, January 2). Tesla posts first fall in annual deliveries as demand slows. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-posts-first-fall-annual-deliveries-demand-slows-2025-01-02/

 

A Comparison of Roman-European and Ancient Iranian Water Systems 

Taguelmoust. (2005, May 26). Foggara 02 [Photograph]. CC BY-SA 3.0. Wikimedia Commons.

 

Hydraulic systems are not merely feats of engineering; they are also expressions of societal priorities, values, and organisation. My recent article in the International Journal of Economic Performance (IJEP) examines the hydraulic architecture of Roman-European water systems and Ancient Iranian qanat systems, tracing how these infrastructures reflected the distinct social and political values of their creators.

This exploration builds on insights gained during a collaboration with Heritage and Education Berlin as part of a UNICEF initiative. It was further enriched by my collaboration with Alexandre Solcà, an independent researcher and esteemed expert in ancient languages, and guided by Professor Hichem Benhamida of Boumerdes University, Algeria. Together, these contributions helped frame the study within a broader historical and cultural context.

 


 

The Dual Role of Hydraulic Architecture

Hydraulic systems serve two roles: one is practical—distributing water to meet societal needs; the other is symbolic—representing the values and priorities of the society that built them. These dual roles are particularly evident in the Roman-European water systems and Ancient Iranian qanat systems, which, despite sharing the goal of water distribution, diverged sharply in design and intent.

  • Roman-European systems were monumental and public-facing. Aqueducts and fountains demonstrated the power and wealth of the empire, often functioning as symbols of control and grandeur. For example, fountains in city centres were not only practical for water access but also served as visual statements of the state’s dominance over nature and resources.
  • Ancient Iranian qanats, by contrast, were understated and community-oriented. Developed during the Pre-Islamic and Islamic periods, these underground channels efficiently transported water over long distances to arid regions. Their design prioritised sustainability, equitable resource distribution, and long-term functionality, reflecting a societal emphasis on communal well-being over ostentation.

The differences in these systems illustrate how infrastructure can reflect broader political, economic, and cultural priorities.

 


 

Building on Collaborative Insights

This article stemmed from an earlier collaboration with Heritage and Education Berlin, where the focus was on sustainable development within the context of cultural heritage. Discussions with Ping Kong during that project were particularly inspiring, providing foundational insights that shaped this research.

Direct collaboration with Alexandre Solcá of the Franco-Russian Institute added further depth to the study. Alexandre’s expertise in historical and cultural studies helped refine the comparative framework, ensuring that the nuances of both Roman-European and Ancient Iranian systems were accurately represented.

Guidance from Professor Hichem Benhamida, editor of IJEP and researcher at Boumerdes University, Algeria, was also invaluable. His leadership, along with contributions from the Algerian Scientific Platform (ASJP), provided essential support in situating the research within broader scholarly discussions on economic and architectural heritage.

 


 

The Broader Implications of Architectural Heritage

Architecture offers a fascinating lens through which to examine the interplay of engineering, societal values, and cultural priorities. Examining these structures provides a means to gain new perspectives on how societies of the past managed their resources and expressed their collective identity.

Equally enriching is the multicultural collaboration that enabled this study, bringing together expertise across countries to re-evaluate longstanding concepts and uncover new insights. Such international dialogue enhances our understanding, allowing us to approach historical and contemporary challenges with fresh viewpoints and a shared commitment to innovation.

 

Photo by Tima Miroshnichenko: https://www.pexels.com/photo/a-woman-in-plaid-blazer-using-her-laptop-6693661/

When I researched value models for my own work, I came across Anatoly V. Kondratenko’s Physical Economics: Stationary Quantum Economies in the Price-Quantity Space. As a person highly interested in physics and mathematics, I immediately liked the idea of quantum calculations and dug deep into it. But as I delved further, I realised that while the mathematics was fascinating, it would never really improve anything meaningful in economic forecasting. Today, I am surprised to see that this fallacy is not only widespread but also a trend that continues to grow, as evidenced by Ivanov and Petrova (2024), which itself falls into the same trap, further demonstrating its prevalence in financial thinking.


the sum of the total one-good demands
"The aggregate demand for a single good" according to Kondratenkov (2015).

While the mathematical underpinnings of these models may be impeccable, their application to dynamic, reflexive systems such as financial markets often leads to unintended consequences and misplaced expectations. This article unpacks the fallacy of precision in social science forecasting, examines why adoption drives success rather than accuracy, and proposes better ways to understand and screen factors in such complex systems.

The Illusion of Precision

In Physical Economics, Kondratenko applied principles from quantum mechanics to economic modelling, seeking to create a framework where economic behaviours could be understood as quantum phenomena. His work is a striking example of the ongoing trend to impose the deterministic rigor of physical sciences onto social systems. Similarly, the 2024 Systematic Literature Review on Quantum Economics summarises the evolution of this field from 1978 to today, highlighting numerous attempts to leverage quantum concepts like superposition and uncertainty to model financial behaviours.

However, the fundamental challenge lies in the inherent difference between physical and social systems. While precision enhances predictive accuracy in deterministic systems like weather patterns, financial markets and economies are reflexive and driven by interest-oriented actors motivated by existential considerations. It is the interplay of personhood and agency that fundamentally alters their dynamics, making them distinct from deterministic systems. This creates a dynamic where precision does not necessarily equate to better forecasting outcomes. Even when the results appear improved, it is not the precision of the method itself that directly causes better forecasts, but rather other factors such as broader adoption or systemic alignment.

The Real Driver: Adoption, Not Accuracy

Financial forecasts succeed not because of their precision, but because of their widespread adoption. This phenomenon can be explained by:

  • Self-Fulfilling Prophecies: Forecasts shape expectations and behaviours. For instance, a prediction of rising interest rates can prompt businesses and investors to act in ways that cause the rates to rise.

  • Coordination Mechanisms: Forecasts serve as tools to align the actions of disparate market participants, creating a shared narrative that influences outcomes.

  • Systemic Influence: The broader the adoption of a forecast, the more it shapes collective decision-making, reinforcing the predicted trends.

As the literature review suggests, the mathematical elegance of quantum economic models often obscures their inability to capture this reflexivity. Their success, paradoxically, lies in how well they influence behaviour, not in how accurately they predict outcomes.

Toward Better Forecasting: Understanding and Screening Factors

To move beyond the illusion of precision, financial and economic forecasting must embrace methodologies that prioritise adaptability, systemic understanding, and behavioural insight. Key approaches include:

  • Systems Thinking: Analysing how factors interact within broader systems, identifying feedback loops and cascading effects.

  • Scenario Planning: Exploring multiple potential futures to understand how key drivers might influence different outcomes.

  • Agent-Based Modelling (ABM): Simulating the behaviours and interactions of individual agents to observe emergent phenomena.

  • Behavioural Analysis: Focusing on the psychological and social factors that drive economic decision-making.

From a philosophical perspective, incorporating the foundational ideas of Carl Menger and Manfred Max-Neef offers a complementary lens:

  • Carl Menger’s Principles of Economics: Menger’s focus on individual needs and subjective value highlights the importance of understanding how individual preferences and marginal utility drive economic behaviours. This approach emphasises the dynamic and contextual nature of value creation, aligning well with the reflexivity of financial systems (Menger, 1871/1981).

  • Manfred Max-Neef’s Fundamental Human Needs: Max-Neef’s framework of fundamental human needs (e.g., subsistence, protection, identity, participation) shifts the focus from mere economic efficiency to human well-being. Screening factors based on their impact on these needs could provide a more holistic understanding of economic systems and their drivers (Max-Neef, as cited in Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation, 1989).

These philosophies encourage forecasters to examine the underlying human behaviours, values, and needs that shape economic activity, rather than relying solely on abstract mathematical models.

Wrong Incentives and Market Instability

The wrong application of forecasting methods often perpetuates practices that reaffirm inefficient market behaviour. Over time, this can lead to systemic crises, instability, and eventual displacement by more efficient systems. This dynamic is particularly relevant in the context of ongoing financial competition, such as the current dollar-based monetary system versus the multi-currency framework proposed by BRICS. In such scenarios, the failure to address inefficiencies within the dominant system may accelerate its decline, making it crucial to reconsider the incentives and mechanisms that shape forecasting practices.

Conclusion

The intersection of quantum mechanics and economics presents an intriguing frontier, exemplified by the works of Kondratenko and the 2024 systematic review. However, the relentless pursuit of precision in financial forecasting often misses a crucial truth: success depends more on influence, adoption, and adaptability than on mathematical exactitude.

Building on my earlier work (Hirzel, 2017a, 2017b), which critiqued the structural disconnection between obligations and rights in financial systems, I now shift focus to the concept of value within the same structural framework. The instability stems not only from disconnection but also from the fundamental challenge of defining and calculating value. Together, these perspectives provide a more nuanced understanding of structural imbalances and suggest pathways to address them effectively.

This critique aligns with the libertarian tradition of questioning centralised interventions in financial systems, particularly through the subjective theory of value developed by the School of Salamanca (see Francisco de Vitoria, Luis de Molina, and Domingo de Soto, as discussed in Álvarez, 2020). Their emphasis on the decentralised nature of value determination underscores the importance of individual preferences and localised knowledge in shaping market dynamics.

By integrating insights from systems thinking, behavioural analysis, and philosophical approaches—such as those of Menger and Max-Neef—we can design tools that better prioritise adaptability and alignment with the complexities of economic systems. This shift not only fosters innovation but also embraces the inherent unpredictability of human behaviour, offering a framework for navigating uncertainty with clarity and purpose.

References

Álvarez, F. (2020). La Escuela de Salamanca y la teoría subjetiva del valor. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/42932625/La_Escuela_de_Salamanca_y_la_teor%C3%ADa_subjetiva_del_valor

Dag Hammarskjöld Foundation. (1989). Development dialogue: A journal of international development cooperation. Retrieved from https://www.daghammarskjold.se/wp-content/uploads/1989/05/89_1.pdf

Hirzel, T. (2017a). The potential of Islamic banking from the perspective of the Austrian school. [Video]. Instituto Juan de Mariana. Retrieved from https://juandemariana.org/ijm-media/video/panel-de-teoria-economica-y-monetaria-bloque-3/

Hirzel, T. (2017b). The potential of Islamic banking from the perspective of the Austrian school. Academia.edu. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/37429170/The_potential_of_Islamic_banking_from_the_perspective_of_the_Austrian_school

Ivanov, V., & Petrova, O. (2024). Quantum economics: A systematic literature review. Retrieved from https://armgpublishing.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/SEC_1_2024_5.pdf

Kondratenkov, I. (2021). Economics of the future: Principles and predictions. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2363874

Mises, L. von. (2008). Principles of economics. Retrieved from https://cdn.mises.org/Principles%20of%20Economics_5.pdf

The Dual Pillars of Ancient Leadership

In ancient societies, governance and spiritual guidance were often entrusted to distinct leaders, such as kings and queens or shamans and priests. This separation of roles was a hallmark of early civilizations, such as those in ancient Sumer, where these positions were mutually exclusive and held equal importance, with no clear hierarchical order.

The Intersection of Church and State

The relationship between spiritual and political authority has been a complex one throughout history. A notable example is the era of Charlemagne, where it is debated whether the Church ordained him or if he established the modern Church by self-coronation. This blurring of lines continued in early democracies, where rulers' religions often became the state religion, showcasing the intertwined nature of spiritual and political spheres.

Convergence of Roles in Medieval Times

In some historical contexts, spiritual and political leadership converged into a single role. Early Christian abbots, for instance, transitioned from managing monasteries to ruling cities like Augsburg and Zurich. In certain Islamic states, rulers held both political and spiritual authority, illustrating a continued blending of these roles.

The Renaissance and the Continuation of Dual Roles

During the Renaissance, cities like Zurich saw political leaders often holding multiple roles, including ecclesiastical positions. This period highlighted the ongoing fusion of spiritual and political responsibilities, even as society began to shift towards more distinct delineations.

The Separation in Modern Democracies

Modern democracy sought to clearly separate the spiritual and politico-economic spheres, assigning the administration of the people's will to political leaders, while spiritual leaders focused on shared values and visions. This separation aimed to prevent the concentration of power and ensure balanced governance.

Challenges in a Multicultural World

As societies became more multicultural and multiconfessional, the challenge of maintaining a cohesive vision grew. The increasing diversity of beliefs and values highlighted the limitations of separating spiritual and political roles, raising questions about the effectiveness of leadership without a unifying vision.

Reintegrating Spiritual and Political Leadership

In ancient times, rituals symbolised the unity between rulers and spiritual leaders. Today, there is a growing need to reintegrate these roles thoughtfully, respecting pluralism and ensuring accountability. Possible approaches include fostering dialogue between faith communities and political leaders and developing frameworks for ethical governance grounded in shared values.

Conclusion: Towards Cohesive Leadership

The interplay between spiritual and political leadership continues to be a vital aspect of societal governance. As we navigate the complexities of modern, diverse societies, finding ways to thoughtfully integrate these roles will be crucial in shaping a cohesive and inclusive future for all.


Repensar el valor de la humanidad en el cine

En la cinematografía contemporánea, un tema recurrente es el de "salvar a la humanidad", concepto que a menudo se confunde con la simple protección de la especie humana. Sin embargo, esta sustitución entre "humanidad" y "seres humanos" resulta problemática. Mientras "humanidad" implica una dimensión filosófica más amplia, "seres humanos" se refiere a una categoría biológica. Es crucial diferenciar estos términos para evitar confusiones conceptuales.

Veamos un tropo narrativo común: una persona enfrenta en su hogar a un intruso que amenaza a sus seres queridos. Generalmente, este escenario limita las opciones a la confrontación directa, omitiendo posibles alternativas como desarmar o convencer al agresor. Se ignora así la diferencia moral entre ser un espectador pasivo y un participante activo en actos de violencia, ya sea en defensa propia o de otros. Predomina una narrativa de protección, a menudo centrada en la defensa de la familia inmediata o de la propiedad, reflejando ideologías pseudo-liberales. Curiosamente, esta historia suele girar en torno a un hombre protegiendo a su familia, dejando de lado dinámicas de la vida real como hijos protegiendo a sus madres.

Apartándonos de estas narrativas convencionales, la idea central sigue siendo la de proteger a aquellos que amamos, a quienes están integrados en nuestro día a día.

Sin embargo, el cine actual propone expandir este instinto protector para abarcar a todos los seres humanos, no por un sentido de humanidad compartida, sino para salvaguardar a la especie humana como entidad biológica. Rara vez se explica el porqué de esta extensión de la protección.

Para simplificar, planteemos un experimento mental. Imaginemos que se tiene un perro muy querido y un vecino despreciable o un jefe abusivo. Recordemos el cliché cinematográfico donde se debe elegir entre dos seres amados en un escenario mortal. Ante la disyuntiva de salvar a su leal perro o al individuo nocivo, ¿a quién escogería? ¿Al ser humano o al perro?

Las películas frecuentemente muestran al héroe salvando a la humanidad, usualmente derrotando al antagonista. No obstante, rara vez se considera la posibilidad de que los únicos supervivientes sean los "villanos". En una situación real, frente a una decisión práctica y concreta, ¿optaríamos por salvar a la especie humana si ello implicara conservar solo a sus elementos más nefastos?

En resumen, estas historias nos invitan a replantearnos nuestra percepción sobre lo que significa "salvar a la humanidad". ¿Es acaso proteger a la especie humana en su aspecto biológico, o hay un valor más profundo y filosófico en el concepto de humanidad que las representaciones cinematográficas suelen pasar por alto?